RPA has identified Bridgeport as a key urban growth area for southwestern New England and Metropolitan New York ... Transit Oriented Development in Bridgeport is contingent on GBT’s continued ability to meet the existing rider needs and respond to increased demands for transit services.
Benefit Cost Analysis
GBT has experienced consistent growth over the past several years and anticipates further increases in demand for its services in the years to come. The GBT, however, has already reached the operational limits of its current facility, and will not be able to meet any further increases in demand. The GBT, as previously described, is undertaking a renovation and expansion effort that will allow for the continuation of current levels of service and meet the increasing demand for decades to come. As part of their decision making process, the GBT explored a Benefit Cost Analysis that considered tangible economic impacts on the GBT and surrounding community.
The Benefit Cost Analysis compared the current facility with the proposed facility for a twenty-year period after construction is complete. The analysis examined potential tangible items that would be affected by the proposed facility including, energy use, facility and fleet operation and maintenance costs, GBT revenue impact, community economic impact, avoided future capital projects, and greenhouse gas emission impact.
Energy, operational and maintenance costs were determined using current facility expenditures and projecting possible costs for a new, more efficient facility. The GBT revenue impact was based on growth trends over the past five years. Since the facility has reached its fleet limit it was assumed that ridership would need to remain constant, thus any increase in revenue would be equal to that of inflation. For the proposed case it was assumed that ridership would continue to increase resulting in a sustainable revenue increase that out paced inflation.
The economic impact on the community would be equal to the amount of fuel saved by using mass transit rather than personal vehicles and the creation of jobs to serve the growing fleet. Using a passenger to car ratio, and typical personal vehicle fuel efficiency (provided by the Department of Energy), an annual avoided personal vehicle fuel consumption and cost was determined. The fuel rate used in the analysis was based on the average fuel rate for Connecticut over the past year. An assumed annual rate increase of 4.5% was used. It should be noted that due to the volatility in this market these rates are subject to change.
The costs and savings associated with these various items were compared to the cost associated with each alternative. In the case of the new facility this cost would be equal to the total project cost; in the alternative, which considers keeping the existing facility, these costs would be zero. The total economic impact of the facility was then compared between the current facility and the proposed facility to determine the net present value of both options.
This analysis identified and calculated possible tangible impacts from the project. Additional community benefits exist from a reduction in potential vehicle traffic. These include, but are not limited to, reduced road maintenance costs, reduced road expansion projects, as well as overall accident and safety improvements. These factors cannot be quantified at this time. However, this project is anticipated to have such impacts.
The outcome of the BCA can be summarized as follows – the FEIP will:
- Create more than 250 jobs during construction
- Lead to steady growth in jobs at GBT and throughout the region for the next 20 years including approximately 42 additional jobs for drivers and support staff
- Lead to a reduction in energy costs – the cost per kWh/s.f. is expected to decline approximately 15% from 7.63 to 6.49. The cost of natural gas in mmBtu/s.f. will decline by approximately 17% from .047 to.039 mmBtu/s.f.
- Lead to a total fossil fuel impact (gallons saved) of nearly 100,000 gallons annually by year 10 and more than 230,000 gallons annually by year 20
- Lead to region CO2 emissions reductions of up to 1.5 million lbs by year 10 and more than 3.7 million lbs. by year 20
- Save $13.3 million in avoided capital costs
- Provide a 9% return on the investment in this project over the next twenty years in the form of fuel savings, new jobs, and avoided future capital investment costs. This 9% return on investment is the value of these savings over the next 20 years compared to the initial investment cost.
To view the complete BCA and the assumptions used in its preparation, click here.
